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The Hemisphere Trump Doesn’t SeeBy Heydi Bernal for Ruta Pantera on 4/23/2026 7:07:41 AM |
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| A few weeks ago, Donald Trump welcomed a dozen Latin American presidents to his golf club in Doral. He called it the “Shield of the Americas” and presented it as a historic summit aimed at redefining alliances across the Western Hemisphere. The photographs were striking. The handshakes, warm. The statements, optimistic. And yet, on the other side of the world, China continued building ports in Peru, financing highways in Brazil, and signing no-strings-attached agreements across South America. That image captures, with unsettling precision, the central problem of Trump’s foreign policy toward the hemisphere: plenty of stagecraft, little substance. Plenty of megaphone, little vision. And a historic opportunity slipping through Washington’s fingers while it looks the other way. The Most Valuable Continent the United States Ignores There is a paradox few dare to name clearly: the United States has, within its own hemisphere, the most powerful strategic partner it could wish for, yet it has spent decades treating it as a security problem rather than a lever for prosperity. The numbers speak for themselves. In 2023, goods imported into the United States from the Western Hemisphere surpassed one trillion dollars. Mexico, in that same year, overtook China as the United States’ top trading partner, and nearly five million American jobs depend directly on trade with its southern neighbor. Latin America and the Caribbean hold some of the most coveted natural resources of the 21st century: lithium in Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina; oil in Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana; copper in Chile and Peru; grains and animal protein in Brazil and Argentina. This is no one’s backyard. It is the hemisphere’s treasure chest. And Washington’s response? Tariffs. Deportations. Military threats. Coercive rhetoric. A foreign policy that confuses domination with leadership and, in the process, pushes its own neighbors into Beijing’s arms. “America First” as an Excuse to Ignore the Americas Trump coined the slogan “America First” as the banner of his movement. It is a legitimate principle: any government must look after its own citizens. The problem is not the philosophy. The problem is the strategic myopia with which it is applied. Because if one truly put America first, meaning the entire hemisphere as a geopolitical and economic unit, the logical conclusion would be the opposite of what the White House is doing today. Instead of imposing tariffs that damage deeply integrated supply chains, it would build agreements that multiply joint production. Instead of deporting millions of workers who sustain entire sectors of the U.S. economy, it would design orderly migration pathways that reflect real labor market needs. Instead of threatening military interventions that generate continental resentment, it would offer infrastructure investment capable of competing head-to-head with China’s Belt and Road. The problem is that Trump and his team view the hemisphere through three exclusive lenses: migration, drug trafficking, and the shadow of China. Everything that does not fit those categories, the region’s immense economic potential, its emerging middle classes, its evolving democracies, its youth and resources, simply does not exist on Washington’s radar. The Stick-Without-Carrot Strategy Since January 2025, the Trump administration has governed hemispheric relations with a binary logic: those who align receive rewards; those who do not face sanctions. It is a transactional vision that may work in the short term, and has indeed produced some results, such as cooperation on deportations, but in the medium term it is producing exactly the opposite of what Washington claims to want. Sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper hit the hemisphere particularly hard, as Canada, Brazil, and Mexico are the main sources of U.S. steel imports, while Chile, Canada, Mexico, and Peru supply nearly 97 percent of imported copper. The implicit message was devastating: even the closest allies are not safe from economic coercion. Why, then, would they bet on Washington when Beijing is an alternative? And Beijing, it must be said, does not rest. While Trump imposes conditions, China offers checks. In 2025, a survey commissioned by The Economist found that most South American countries surveyed perceive China as the most respectful superpower and the most reliable trading partner. That should set off alarms in Washington. Instead, it barely produces a murmur. The logic of “stick without carrot” has another, less visible but equally serious consequence: it fragments the region rather than articulating it. In the absence of an attractive hemispheric project from Washington, each country negotiates bilaterally as best it can. Some concede more than they should. Others, such as Brazil and Colombia, have chosen to expand ties with China, Europe, and the BRICS precisely in response to U.S. pressure. The region Trump seeks to control is slipping away in slow motion. |
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Venezuela: Tactical Victory, Strategic Failure The most emblematic case of this contradiction is Venezuela. In January 2026, a U.S. military operation captured Nicolás Maduro and transferred him to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. It was a bold, spectacular move that Trump celebrated with his usual grandiosity: “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be questioned.” He may be right in strictly military terms. But dominance cannot be sustained by demonstrations of force alone. The operation destabilized diplomatic certainties across the region, unnerved centrist and left-leaning governments already wary of Washington, and raised questions about whether a new “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine is compatible with international law or the sovereignty of nations that, though weak, are not enemies. What the operation did not do was resolve Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis, which has produced more than seven million refugees, the largest migration crisis in the hemisphere, nor did it offer a credible plan for economic reconstruction. Capturing Maduro was the easy part. Building a functional, democratic, and prosperous Venezuela is the real challenge, and that challenge is not being discussed in Washington. The Opportunity No One Wants to See There is a question that should be asked more urgently in Washington’s centers of power: what would happen if the United States treated its hemispheric neighbors as what they are, irreplaceable strategic partners, rather than problems to be managed? The answer is not idealism. It is geopolitical arithmetic. Latin America and the Caribbean are, at this moment, the region with the greatest nearshoring potential for companies seeking to reduce dependence on China. Mexico is already experiencing it: the reconfiguration of global supply chains is turning the country into a major beneficiary of U.S.–China rivalry, provided Washington does not undermine the process with erratic tariffs and counterproductive political pressure. Colombia, with coastlines on two oceans, a young demographic, and technological talent, is a natural candidate to become an advanced manufacturing hub. Chile, with the world’s largest lithium reserves, is indispensable to any serious energy transition strategy. Brazil, the world’s eighth-largest economy, is essential to any global order that aspires to legitimacy. None of these countries is waiting for favors from the United States. They are weighing options. And while Trump offers tariffs, deportations, and militarization, China offers trade, investment, and non-interference. The choice being made, slowly but with lasting consequences, should concern any strategist looking beyond the next election cycle. What a Real “Shield of the Americas” Would Require Trump has the energy, transactional instinct, and boldness to do something transformative in the hemisphere. No one can accuse him of timidity when something truly matters to him. The problem is what he chooses to prioritize. If the administration wanted to build a prosperous, stable hemisphere genuinely aligned with long-term U.S. interests, the ingredients are already on the table. First, a hemispheric infrastructure investment plan competitive with China’s. This is not philanthropy. It is about financing ports, highways, power grids, and digital connectivity that generate contracts for U.S. companies, jobs on both sides of borders, and mutual dependence that strengthens political ties. The Chinese model is not mysterious. It works because it offers something tangible. The United States could offer something better, if it chose to. Second, a hemispheric migration reform to replace chaos with order. Migration is not stopped by walls or mass deportations. It is regulated when origin countries offer reasons to stay and destination countries provide legal channels aligned with real labor needs. Trump could design a system that gives the U.S. the workers it needs, origin countries the investment and cooperation they require, and both the stability neither has achieved for decades. Third, a coherent hemispheric trade policy. The 2026 review of the USMCA is an opportunity, not a threat. Instead of using it to impose unilateral conditions that fragment North American supply chains, it could serve as the foundation for a broader trade architecture that includes more countries under clear and predictable rules. Legal certainty is, for investors, as valuable as any preferential tariff. Fourth, and perhaps most urgently, a change in tone. The diplomacy of threats may produce immediate results, but it erodes long-term political capital. Latin American leaders who yield to Washington’s pressure today do so by calculating costs and benefits. When the cost of yielding exceeds the cost of resisting, they will change course. And that tipping point accelerates every time Washington treats its neighbors as subordinates rather than partners. Time Is Not on Washington’s Side There is an urgency here that the rhetoric of a “shield” does not capture. The world is reorganizing at a pace few generations have witnessed. Supply chains are being redrawn. Geopolitical alliances are being reshaped. The energy transition is creating new centers of power around critical minerals. And Latin America, with its resources, geography, and demographic potential, sits at the center of all these transformations. The question is not whether the hemisphere will change. It already is. The question is whether the United States will lead that change or arrive late, as it has so often before, lamenting that China built the port Washington never financed, that Brazil signed the agreement Washington never proposed, that Latin America integrated into the world without Washington because Washington never invited it to the table as an equal. Trump has two more years in the White House. He has the power, resources, and political capital to do something historic in the hemisphere. He could be the president who finally treated the Americas for what they are: the most underestimated strategic asset in U.S. history. So far, he has preferred to be the president who installs a golden statue in Miami and calls that a legacy. The hemisphere deserves more. And so does the United States. |
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